Liberty Ball

Last year, Fabio Castro got a season at the big league level because he was a Rule 5 pickup by the Rangers who was then traded to the Phillies.  Now that he’s not subject to the roster limitations any longer, the Phillies can keep up with the major league team or send him down to the minors.  The problem is, the Phillies rotation is more then full and the Phillies need relievers and Castro could fit right in.  It’ll be interesting to see how the Phillies use Castro this spring and it should give us an idea what the Phillies have in mind for the young pitcher.

Jayson Stark pokes fun at the Phillies after Jimmy Rollins prediction that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East.  This column is a great read and I particularly like the point that 16 players on the Phillies weren’t even born yet in 1980 when the Phillies last one their first and only World Series in the franchises history.  He then goes on to analyze the NL East and how the Phillies might have some holes in their bullpen, they still have a pretty solid team.

In the Phillies rotation, Jon Lieber may be the odd man out.  He’s been the subject of trade rumors all winter but with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, Lieber was there with his knew ride and he said it would be business as usual.  Lieber had a rough 2006 season so he has a lot to prove, it might just be with another team.

His weight had become an issue by year end so it’d be nice if he got that under control.  PECOTA has him across the board but his weighted mean average is an unflattering 1.30 WHIP with a 4.51 ERA.  As always, anything can happen this spring though, which is why it’s such a great time of year.

The Phillies avoided arbitration with relief pitcher Geoff Geary when they signed him to a one year, $837,500 contract.  Geary gave up his share of hits (103 in 91 1/3 innings) but a low walk rate kept his WHIP (1.35) under control.  He was a workhorse out of the pen though.  He threw in half of the Phillies games and racked up over 90 innings.  If he manages a repeat in 2007, then this will be money well spent.

PECOTA expects a slight downtick in 2007.  Geary’s weighted mean average has him at a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.24 ERA with a slightly higher walk rate.  Still, Geary is expected to eat up some middle innings and he should be good for that again.

The closer we get to the 2007 season starting, the more I’m getting optimistic about the season.  Now I read that some of the star players like Chase Utley have already reported to camp and have begun working out.

Forget the Mets.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Phillies will be your 2007 NL East division winners.

ESPN.com’s rumor page recently talked about the status of a long term deal between the Phillies and NL MVP Ryan Howard.  Apparantly after big deals for Chase Utley and Bret Myers, the Phillies are going to hold off until after the 2007 season to decide whether to make a big committment to the slugging first baseman.  I’d like to see the Phillies get this done but I can understand why they’d wait with all of the money that was thrown around so far this year.

Here’s a nice rundown on the left handed pitching prospects that the Phillies have in the minors.

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  That’s quite a combination and they were highlighted in NBCsports.com’s Phillies preseason preview yesterday.  In addition, no other team made trades like the Phillies did to better their team.  The one area of concern for the Phillies is the bullpen, especially closer Tom Gordon and this is also mentioned.  The final prognosis is that the Phillies should give the Mets a run in the NL East.

Man, this is becoming huge.  The Phillies have been on the fringe of the playoffs the past couple of seasons and I think they moves they’ve made this year put them as favorites for the Wild Card.  Then they sign Chase Utley to that huge seven year deal and now they make a three year, $25.75 million commitment to ace starter Bret Myers.

Myers was only 12-7 but he had a 3.91 ERA and he struck out 189 batters in 198 innings. Probably the only thing that stopped him from topping the 200 inning and 200 strikeout mark were those problems he had in Boston.  Regardless, Myers is a rising star and for less then $9 million per, we’re getting a huge bargain for the next three season.

I like what PECOTA is projecting for Myers.  His weighted mean average has him at a 1.29 WHIP and a 4.16 ERA but he has a 16% breakout rate and a 47% improve rate so I’d be hoping for his 75th percentile, which has him at a 1.23 WHIP and a 3.67 ERA along with 182 strikeouts in 200 innings.

Oddly, Myers most comparable player is Freddy Garcia, who now also plays for the Phillies.  Regardless, this is just another sigh that the front office and ownership is committed to winning.